It looks like an interesting weather situation going into the weekend. It is possible that we will experience some significant inflows into far northern reaches of the Upper Chattahoochee and Savannah River Basins, which would help, at least minimally, overall system flows and reservoir storage. More widespread rainfall is likely over a large part of Mississippi and Alabama. Let me explain.

Here is the set-up for this next system. Note the position of the center of low pressure the next three days. On the “favorable” side for heavy rain is that fact that this will be a slow-moving system. It will take a full three days to clear the area.

The next image depicts low-level inflow patterns. High pressure off the east coast will enhance a steady inflow from the Atlantic. The area of surface low pressure will enhance streaming inflows from the Gulf of Mexico.

I suspect that there will be two areas of enhanced rainfall. The first, outlined in blue, will be associated with the Gulf of Mexico inflow and area of low pressure. The second, outlined in green, will form in response to the low pressure plus orographic lifting due to the southeast Atlantic flow.

I am concerned about the rainfall potential for higher elevations of the southern Appalachians. Rainfall could exceed several inches in this area with the potential for flash flooding.

There are several factors pointing towards a significant rain event: both upper-level and low-level lift, an ample flow of moisture, and a slow movement. Maistem rivers can handle this rainfall without flooding, except in isolated spots.

Unfortunately, it looks like rainfall will be much lighter over the core region of drought — southern Georgia, and the eastern half of the Carolinas.