November and early December have unfolded pretty much as advertised for a La Nina year with storms heading into the Pacific Northwest, skirting the northern portions of the Colorado and Great Basin.

The above plots shows Snow Water Equalivent as of Dec 17. The northern mountains including the Wastach, the Uinta, and the norther Rockies are all showing SNOTEL readings of near to above normal for this time of year. By contrast, the San Juans, the lower basin have been very dry so far this year.

HPC Dec 17 12Z QPF forecast

The current storm systems lined up in the Pacific are poised to impact California over the next week or so. However, the forecasts have been less impressive with their impacts to the Colorado Basin. The forecast above, for instance, shows maximum seven day precipitation totals on the order of 2-3″ in the Wasatch and Western Colorado mountains. This is much less than the 15″ forecast for the Sierra Nevada. It is interesting to see the forecasts for southern California with so much precipitation – certainly not a typical La Nina teleconnection. What does that portend for the Colorado Basin? Time will tell.

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